Subject: Re: Collision Threats From Near-Earth Asteroid 2024 YR4
From: Daniel Adamo <[email-masked]>
To: "ATIG (A-K)" <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 15 Apr 2025 18:54:50 -0700

ATIG Members-

Thanks to some eagle-eyed review of the subject paper’s initial draft, I’ve made some corrections and minor clarifications to produce the attached “r1” draft.  This revision completely supersedes the original distributed on March 25.  I can supply r0 redlines producing r1 on request.

-Dan

From: Daniel Adamo <[email-masked]>
Date: Tuesday, March 25, 2025 at 17:10
Subject: Collision Threats From Near-Earth Asteroid 2024 YR4

ATIG Members-

You may recall the subject asteroid making headlines earlier this year when its probability of Earth collision on 22 December 2032 briefly exceeded 3%.  Additional observations of 2024 YR4 have since ruled out an Earth collision.  However, a 2% probability of 2024 YR4 colliding with the Moon on 22 December 2032 remains and is likely to persist until late 2028 when the next 2024 YR4 observing season opens.  The attached paper details these threats and conducts a Liminal External-Mapped Uncertainty Region (LEMUR) analysis for the lunar impact.  Questions and comments are invited.

-Dan