Subject: Potentially Hazardous Object (PHO) 2013 TV135
From: Daniel Adamo <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 01 Nov 2013 22:34:19 -0700

ATIG Members-

The attached white paper details a preliminary analysis of collision
prospects between near-Earth object 2013 TV135 and Earth in year 2032.  Such
events play out very much in the same way as do potential collisions between
ISS and debris orbiting Earth.  The major difference is possible
interplanetary collisions with Earth are typically first predicted decades
in advance of impact, while those threatening ISS are rarely forecast more
than a few days before closest approach.  In both cases, collision
probability Pc typically increases before it suddenly drops to zero, and
statistics behind this behavior are explained in the paper.

Of course, the typical ISS debris avoidance impulse of about 1 m/s would be
unthinkably difficult to impart to the Earth.  In the unlikely event 2013
TV135 Pc approaches near-certain levels, it would have to be diverted or
exploded to avert an impact currently estimated at 3250 megatons.  October
31's Pc estimate for 2013 TV135 collision with Earth on 26.36 August 2032 UT
is 0.00016, or 1-in-6250.  At this Pc level, an ISS avoidance maneuver would
be considered near-mandatory, but planning and executing such a maneuver can
take a day or more with at most 3 days' notice before potential collision.
We have about a decade to refine 2013 TV135's orbit before any worst-case
scenario would precipitate action to mitigate collision with Earth.

As always, feedback on this paper is invited.

-Dan